A supplier saying « thirty days » is answering a narrower question than the one you asked. They mean thirty days of production once the order is confirmed, the deposit has arrived, the artwork is approved and the materials are in. You mean the time between deciding and having the goods. The gap between those two definitions is usually where a launch date is lost.
The four hidden segments
- Before the clock starts. Order confirmation, deposit transfer and clearing, artwork and sample approval. This regularly takes as long as production itself and is entirely within your control.
- Material procurement. The factory rarely holds your components. A single long-lead part sets the pace for the whole order, and nobody mentions it until week three.
- Inspection and rework. If you inspect — and you should — plan for the case where something has to be redone. Planning only for the pass case guarantees a late shipment when it fails.
- Booking and sailing. Space has to be booked, the container has to be loaded, and the vessel leaves when it leaves. A day late leaving the factory can mean a week late leaving the port.
What to ask for instead of a number
Ask for a dated plan with the milestones named: deposit received, materials in, production start, production end, inspection date, container loading, estimated departure. A supplier who can produce that has planned your order; one who repeats a single number has not. The plan also gives you something to check against at week two, when a slip is still recoverable.
The seasonal multiplier
Lead times are not constant across the year. The weeks before Chinese New Year are the worst possible time to place an order that has to be right, because the whole supply chain is trying to finish at once and then closes. The same order placed six weeks earlier or four weeks later behaves completely differently.
Build your own schedule with the inspection-fails case included. A plan that only works if nothing goes wrong is not a plan; it is a hope with dates on it.